Markt für Redox-Flow-Batterien 2024-2034: IDTechEx

IDTechEx forecasts that the redox flow battery market will be valued at US$2.8B in 2034.

Markt für Redox-Flow-Batterien 2024-2034

Globale Marktanalyse für Redox-Flow-Batterien (RFB), einschließlich Akteuren, Technologie-Benchmarking, Anwendungen, Langzeitenergiespeicherung (LDES), Einnahmequellen, Materialien, Berechnungen der Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) und 10-Jahres-Marktprognosen.

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As the volume of variable renewable energy (VRE) energy sources penetrating electricity grids increases globally, as does the need to manage the increasing uncertainty and variability in electricity supply. Grids will be relying on different solutions to manage this, which could include building of overcapacity and interconnections, but also energy storage solutions. Redox flow batteries will be a key energy storage technology to support increasing VRE penetration, with IDTechEx forecasting that the RFB market will be valued at US$2.8B in 2034.
Aside from pumped hydro, Li-ion batteries currently dominate the global stationary energy storage market, and they are suitable for large, grid-scale installations to provide ancillary and utility services. As VRE penetration increases however, demand for long duration energy storage (LDES) technologies is expected to increase. These technologies will be needed to dispatch energy over longer timeframes when energy from VRE sources is not available. Li-ion batteries start becoming less suitable for storing energy at durations greater than 6 hours, due to unit system cost increasing with duration of storage proportionally. Instead, RFBs only require the scaling of electrolyte storage tanks and electrolyte volumes to increase duration of storage, whereas cell stack configurations can remain unchanged, i.e., power and energy are decoupled. This results in a smaller and non-proportional increase in CAPEX with increasing duration of storage. This is part of the reason why redox flow batteries will start becoming useful for providing durations of storage greater than 6 hours.
It is also important to recognize that RFBs can provide a lower levelized cost of storage (LCOS) than Li-ion batteries. This is mainly due to the increased lifetime of RFBs, and many RFB manufacturers pride themselves on the fact that RFBs are reliable systems, with no significant degradation being observed over 20,000+ cycles for some chemistries. As a result, RFBs can dispatch greater volumes of energy capacity (approximately 4-5x) over their lifetime than Li-ion batteries, resulting in a lower LCOS.
Exploded RFB cell stack. Source: IDTechEx.
However, there are some factors limiting the rate of RFB deployments in the current stationary energy storage market. Firstly, while RFBs present a lower LCOS than Li-ion, the CAPEX per kWh of the most widely deployed RFB, the vanadium RFB (VRFB), is higher. This will naturally act as a blocker for stakeholders looking to deploy energy storage technologies for grid-scale applications where CAPEX is already expected to be in the tens- or hundreds-of-millions of dollars for Li-ion. The cost of VRFBs is limited by expensive vanadium electrolyte, as this comprises ~30-50% of unit cost. Other substantial costs come from materials and components in the cell stack (see below) including the membrane, bipolar plates, electrodes, gaskets, etc. VRFB cost reductions are only likely to come in the longer term and from increasing economies of scale, as well as improved and more automated manufacturing processes.
A second factor limiting RFB deployments is that, in the current market, most RFBs will be competing with Li-ion batteries for 4-hour grid-scale applications. Li-ion batteries are a widely deployed and well understood technology for these grid-scale ancillary and utility services, such as energy shifting, voltage and frequency control, peaker plant/transmission and distribution (T&D) deferral, etc. Therefore, most RFB deployments in the mid-2020s RFBs are likely to continue being pilot and demonstration projects and competing with Li-ion. This will be at least until demand for long duration energy storage (LDES) technologies starts to increase in the later part of the decade in some key countries. Such countries may have higher penetration of VRE, greater blackout risks, LDES targets and tenders, or are where funding into LDES technologies is already starting to be seen - such as in the US.
As well as VRFBs, other competing RFB technologies could look to take increasing RFB and stationary battery storage market share. These include all-iron, zinc-bromine (Zn-Br), zinc-iron (Zn-Fe), organic, hydrogen-bromine (H-Br) and hydrogen-manganese (H-Mn) RFBs. Some of these technologies offer a much lower CAPEX compared to VRFBs, due to the more widely available and cheaper materials used in the electrolyte. However, they may of course pose some technical downsides which could limit their commercial feasibility. For example, zinc-based RFBs will be prone to zinc-plating on the anode surface, resulting in dendrite growth. Therefore, more highly engineered materials will need to be used in the cell stack to either limit dendrite formation or resist their penetration. This IDTechEx report includes a benchmarking analysis, comparing RFB technology metrics such as CAPEX, electrolyte costs, energy density, energy efficiency, dendrite formation, etc.
Source: IDTechEx
While other RFB technologies may compete, there are far fewer companies developing any one of these specific RFB chemistries. For instance, the only companies developing all-iron, H-Br or H-Mn RFBs are ESS Inc, Elestor and RFC Power, respectively. Therefore, it is more likely that most RFB capacity installed globally will be from vanadium RFBs over the next few years, as 18 companies identified by IDTechEx are developing these systems. Of the key players identified, Rongke Power's large 400 MWh VRFB installation dwarfs all installations made by other players over the past decade. In 2022, Sumitomo Electric Industries installed a 51 MWh VRFB in Japan, and another notable player, Invinity, installed ~22 MWh of VRFBs across various locations in the UK, US, Canada, South Korea and Taiwan. CellCube also made some smaller installations. The only company to make non-VRFB installations in 2022 was Redflow, with their Zn-Br RFB technology, but these only accumulate to ~3 MWh installed in 2022. This IDTechEx report includes market analysis, including RFB player announcements, supply partnerships, company and chemistry market shares, historical RFB installations by region since 2010, and planned projects and production facilities.
This IDTechEx report also provides ten-year market forecasts on the redox flow battery market for the period 2020-2034, in both capacity (MWh) and market value (US$B). Capacity forecasts are provided by regional and chemistry splits. Regions include China, United States, Europe, Japan, Rest of Asia, and Rest of the World. Chemistry breakdowns include vanadium, all-iron, Zn-Br, Zn-Fe, H-Br, and organic redox flow batteries.
This report provides the following information:
  • Current and future market landscape of redox flow batteries, including key player activity, historic deployments from 2010-2023, deployments made by players and by chemistry, player and technology market share, planned future projects, production capacities and announcements, strategic agreements and funding.
  • Comprehensive analysis and discussion on applications, revenue streams, and market timing for RFBs in relation to demand for long duration energy storage (LDES) and increasing variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration.
  • Deep dive into RFB technologies and chemistries, with benchmark analysis including metrics such as CAPEX, electrolyte costs, energy density, energy efficiency, etc.
  • RFB chemistries covered include vanadium (VRFB), all-iron, zinc-bromine, zinc-iron/ferricyanide, organic, hydrogen-bromine, hydrogen-manganese, vanadium-bromine, iron-chromium and polysulfide-bromine.
  • LCOS calculations and explanations for VRFBs vs Li-ion, for 4h, 6h, 8h, and 10h duration of storage.
  • Materials used in RFBs, including membranes, bipolar plates, electrodes, gaskets, sealants, vanadium electrolyte (mining, supply, recycling, leasing), and players.
  • Granular 10-year RFB market forecasts, by region (MWh), by chemistry (MWh), and by value (US$B) for the 2020-2034 period.
  • 20+ company profiles.
Report MetricsDetails
Historic Data2010 - 2023
CAGRCAGR of 45% for annual global RFB deployments for the 2024-2034 period.
Forecast Period2024 - 2034
Forecast UnitsMWh, US$
Regions CoveredChina, United States, Europe, Japan, All Asia-Pacific, Worldwide
Segments CoveredThis IDTechEx report provides ten-year market forecasts on the redox flow battery market for the period 2020 - 2034, in both capacity (MWh) and market value (US$B). Capacity forecasts are provided by regional and chemistry splits. Regions include China, United States, Europe, Japan, Rest of Asia, and Rest of the World. Chemistry breakdowns include vanadium, all-iron, Zn-Br, Zn-Fe, H-Br and organic redox flow batteries.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Key conclusions
1.2.Applications, LDES and Market Timing
1.3.RFB technology benchmarking
1.4.Summary of RFB strengths and weaknesses
1.5.Which RFB technologies will prevail? (1)
1.6.Which RFB technologies will prevail? (2)
1.7.Materials overview
1.8.VRFB and stack cost breakdown
1.9.Cell stack materials map
1.10.Levelized cost of storage for LIB and RFB
1.11.RFB vs Li-ion
1.12.Rongke Power's 400 MWh VRFB
1.13.Recent installations by company
1.14.RFB installations to H2 2023
1.15.Technology market share
1.16.Funding received by company
1.17.Global RFB planned projects
1.18.RFB production facilities
1.19.Supply deals and partnerships
1.20.RFB forecasts 2020-2034 (MWh) commentary
1.21.RFB cumulative deployments share by region (MWh)
1.22.RFB forecasts 2020-2034 by chemistry (MWh) commentary
1.23.RFB forecasts 2020-2034 (US$B)
2.1.Executive Summary
2.2.Applications and revenue streams
2.2.1.Applications and revenues overview
2.2.2.Battery business models and revenue streams overview
2.2.3.Revenue streams descriptions
2.2.4.Values provided by RFBs in FTM ancillary services
2.2.5.Values provided by RFBs in FTM utility services
2.2.6.Values provided by RFBs for BTM - C&I applications
2.2.7.Microgrids and remote locations
2.2.8.Application examples
2.3.RFB Market Timing: VRE and LDES
2.3.1.RFBs for residential applications?
2.3.2.Centralized power grids and issues with flexibility
2.3.3.Phases and issues of VRE integration
2.3.4.Renewable energy curtailment
2.3.5.What is long duration energy storage?
2.3.6.Market timing: When will more grid-scale RFBs be needed? (1)
2.3.7.Market timing: When will more grid-scale RFBs be needed? (2)
2.3.8.Market timing: When will more grid-scale RFBs be needed? (3)
2.3.9.Market timing: When will more grid-scale RFBs be needed? (4)
2.3.10.Competing stationary storage technologies
2.3.11.Concluding remarks
3.1.Executive summary
3.2.1.Redox flow battery: Working principle
3.2.2.Definitions: RFB electrochemistry
3.2.3.Definitions: Efficiencies
3.2.4.RFBs: Energy and power (1)
3.2.5.RFBs: Energy and power (2)
3.2.6.RFBs: Fit-and-forget philosophy
3.2.7.Comparison of RFBs vs fuel cells
3.2.8.Choice of redox-active species and solvents (1)
3.2.9.Choice of redox-active species and solvents (2)
3.2.10.Redox flow battery classification (1)
3.2.11.Redox flow battery classification (2)
3.2.12.RFB historical timeline
3.3.RFB Chemistries
3.3.1.Iron-chromium RFB
3.3.2.Iron-chromium strengths and weaknesses
3.3.3.Polysulfides-bromine (PSB) RFB
3.3.4.PSB historical timeline
3.3.5.PSB key weakness
3.3.6.Vanadium-bromine (V-Br) RFB
3.3.7.V-Br strengths and weaknesses
3.3.8.All vanadium RFB (VRFB)
3.3.9.VRFB strengths and weaknesses
3.3.10.All-iron RFB
3.3.11.All-iron strengths and weaknesses
3.3.12.Zinc-bromine (Zn-Br) RFB
3.3.13.Zn-Br strengths and weaknesses
3.3.14.Zinc-iron (Zn-Fe) RFB
3.3.15.Alkaline Zn-Ferricyanide RFB
3.3.16.Zn-Fe strengths and weaknesses
3.3.17.Hydrogen-bromine (H-Br) RFB
3.3.18.H-Br Strengths and weaknesses
3.3.19.Hydrogen-Manganese (H-Mn) RFB
3.3.20.H-Mn strengths and weaknesses
3.3.21.Organic Redox Flow Battery (ORFB)
3.3.22.Classification of ORFBs
3.3.23.Active species for ORFBs
3.3.24.ORFBs strengths and weaknesses
3.4.RFB commercial activity by chemistry
3.4.1.RFBs with lack of commercial activity
3.4.2.VRFBs commercial activity
3.4.3.All-iron commercial activity (1)
3.4.4.All-iron commercial activity (2)
3.4.5.All-iron commercial activity (3)
3.4.6.Zn-Br commercial activity (1)
3.4.7.Zn-Br commercial activity (2)
3.4.8.Zn-Br commercial activity (3)
3.4.9.Zn-Fe commercial activity
3.4.10.H-Br commercial activity
3.4.11.H-Mn commercial activity
3.4.12.ORFBs commercial activity
3.5.RFB players and commercialized products by chemistry
3.5.1.Vanadium RFB players (1)
3.5.2.Vanadium RFB players (2)
3.5.3.All-iron, Zn-Br, Zn-Fe, H-Br RFB players
3.5.4.Organic and other RFB players
3.5.5.Summary of RFB strengths and weaknesses
3.5.6.RFB technology benchmarking
3.5.7.Which RFB technologies will prevail? (1)
3.5.8.Which RFB technologies will prevail? (2)
4.1.Introduction to materials for redox flow batteries
4.2.1.Membranes overview
4.2.2.Membranes: mesoporous separators
4.2.3.Membranes: ionic exchange membranes (IEM)
4.2.4.Membranes: ionic exchange membranes (IEM)
4.2.5.Membranes: composite membranes and solid state conductors
4.2.6.Membrane considerations for Zn-Fe RFBs
4.2.7.Research in amphoteric IEMs
4.2.8.Research in reducing species crossover
4.2.9.Research in membrane degradation (1)
4.2.10.Research in membrane degradation (2)
4.2.11.Potential ban on PFSA materials
4.2.12.Membrane manufacturers (1)
4.2.13.Membrane manufacturers (2)
4.2.14.Membrane manufacturers (3)
4.3.Bipolar plates and electrodes
4.3.1.Bipolar electrodes
4.3.2.Bipolar electrodes: parasitic effect
4.3.3.Bipolar electrodes: electrode materials and manufacturers
4.3.4.Electrodes: carbon-based electrodes
4.3.5.SGL Carbon electrode felts
4.3.6.Other electrode / bipolar plate manufacturers
4.4.Gaskets and sealants
4.4.2.Sealants and coatings
4.5.Flow configurations
4.5.1.Flow configurations and pumping
4.5.2.Flow distributors and turbulence promoters
4.5.3.Electrolyte flow circuit
4.6.Vanadium: mining, supply and electrolyte
4.6.1.Raw materials for RFB electrolytes
4.6.2.Vanadium overview
4.6.3.Vanadium mining and products (1)
4.6.4.Vanadium mining and products (2)
4.6.5.Vanadium ore processing
4.6.6.Global vanadium production by region and technique
4.6.7.Vanadium: price trend
4.6.8.Vanadium: price trend and junior miners
4.6.9.Vanadium electrolyte recycling
4.6.10.Vanadium electrolyte leasing
4.6.11.Electrolyte leakage mitigation
4.7.1.VRFB and stack cost breakdown
4.7.2.Cell stack materials map
4.7.3.RFB value chain
4.7.4.Concluding remarks
5.1.LCOS of vanadium redox flow battery versus Li-ion battery (4h, 6h, 8h, 10h duration)
5.2.LCOS Calculation: formula and assumptions (1)
5.3.LCOS Calculation: formula and assumptions (2)
5.4.LCOS Calculation: formula and assumptions (3)
5.5.LCOS Calculation: formula and assumptions (4)
5.6.LCOS Calculation: considerations and limitations (1)
5.7.LCOS Calculation: considerations and limitations (2)
5.8.VRFB levelized cost of storage conclusions
6.1.Executive Summary
6.2.2023 Market Outlook
6.2.1.RFB installations to 2021
6.2.2.RFB installations to H2 2023
6.2.3.Technology market share
6.2.4.Recent installations by company - H2 2023 installations by country
6.2.6.Rongke Power's 400 MWh VRFB
6.2.7.Global RFB planned projects
6.2.8.RFB production facilities
6.2.9.Supply deals and partnerships
6.3.Q3 2021 - Q2 2023 updates timeline
6.3.1.Q3 2021 - Q4 2022 timeline
6.3.2.Q1 2023 - Q2 2023 timeline
6.3.3.Funding received by company
6.3.4.Company acquisitions and closures
6.3.5.September 2021 - February 2022
6.3.6.February 2022 - August 2022
6.3.7.August 2022 - December 2022
6.3.8.January 2023 - March 2023
6.3.9.April 2023 - June 2023
6.3.10.Scaling and production capacity timing
6.3.11.Concluding remarks
7.1.Forecasts methodology and assumptions (1)
7.2.Forecasts methodology and assumptions (2)
7.3.Forecasts methodology and assumptions (3)
7.4.RFB forecasts 2020 - 2034 (MWh)
7.5.RFB forecasts 2020 - 2034 (MWh) commentary
7.6.RFB forecasts 2020 - 2034 cumulative (MWh)
7.7.RFB cumulative deployments share by region (MWh)
7.8.RFB forecasts 2020 - 2034 by chemistry (MWh)
7.9.RFB forecasts 2020 - 2034 by chemistry (MWh) commentary
7.10.RFB forecasts 2020 - 2034 (US$B)
7.11.RFB forecasts 2020 - 2034 (US$B)
8.1.Agora Energy Technologies
8.4.Dalian Rongke Power
8.5.ESS Inc.
8.7.Green Energy Storage (GES)
8.8.H2 Inc.
8.9.Invinity Energy Systems
8.10.Jolt Energy Storage Solutions
8.12.Korid Energy / AVESS
8.14.Quino Energy
8.15.RFC Power
8.17.SCHMID Group
8.18.StorEn Technologies
8.19.Sumitomo Electric Industries
8.20.VRB Energy
8.25.WeView / ViZn Energy

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Report Statistics

Slides 211
Companies 25
Forecasts to 2034
Published Sep 2023
ISBN 9781915514929

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