The new IDTechEx report, "48V Full Hybrid, 48V Mild Hybrid, 48V BEV Vehicles: Markets, Technology Roadmap 2021-2041" is a complete rewrite of the annual IDTechEx reports on this subject because the technology is now improving radically, powering rapid sales increase. Car companies have been caught out by Tesla. Many are waking up late to the severity of impending penalties for making too many polluting vehicles. They now race to the end game of battery electric but that takes eye-watering sums of money and delay so they buy time with adaptation of their existing internal combustion-only vehicles.
The quick upgrade is replacing the alternator with something cleverer and adding a second battery to create a "48V mild hybrid" meeting 2025 emissions laws and creating 15% fuel saving. IDTechEx scopes 40 companies doing that with a many existing models. 48V adds about $1200 to cost - not a lot more than the less-effective clean-up equipment that would otherwise have to be added to conventional cars to keep them legal but the story does not end there.
To the excitement of all involved, a pipeline of easy, incremental further improvements await and IDTechEx proposes more. Later, some "48V hybrids" may even replace high voltage hybrids by costing 10% less. Pop in an e-axle and a mild hybrid becomes that full hybrid with excellent 40+km silent, all-electric range, even engine-off active cruising, electrically maintaining speed. All in very easy incremental steps. Indeed, some of the new parts can be used in the rocketing 10 million-units-yearly market for small 48V BEVs where they now say "48V is the new 12V".
Emissions and fuel economy of 48V full hybrids will improve 20%. Evolved 48V hybrids will grab a huge 20% of the light vehicle market, peak at around $500 billion and be around longer than originally thought - 2035.
For example, they will work without the lead-acid battery, use a smaller, non-flammable 48V battery and, with the General Motors MODACS breakthrough, then replace the two batteries and the converter with a single cheaper, better device. IDTechEx has identified an opportunity for $10 billion yearly sales of solar wrap that can make 10% more electricity to multiply such delights as sophisticated driver assistance, heated seats and predictive suspension.
There is therefore an urgent need for a post COVID report on all this based on ongoing PhD level interviews worldwide in local languages, deep technical insights and presentations by the companies involved. The new IDTechEx report, "48V Full Hybrid, 48V Mild Hybrid, 48V BEV Vehicles: Markets, Technology Roadmap 2021-2041" is just that. Little wonder that it now runs to 300 densely packed pages.
This is analysis not evangelism. It explains why six manufacturers disagree, how sales will be dented by COVID, why the smallest cars often have better options and when BEVs kill all 48V hybrids. It shares higher forecasts from other analysts explaining why IDTechEx thinks they are wrong.
Replete with new infograms, the Executive Summary and Conclusions gives the essentials - basics, 46 primary conclusions, ten-year forecasts by number, unit value, market value, region, by 48V mild vs 48V full hybrid and by rotating machine position. Background forecasts show COVID effect on the car market. See a 20 year 48V technology roadmap. Understand relevance of components to 48V BEVs. The Introduction give the emissions background, powertrain choices and data. It explains the move to 48V, presenting the IDTechEx survey on architecture attitudes and timescales, windows of opportunity, advantages, disadvantages, SOFT report.
Chapter 3 covers the imminent 48V full hybrid cars: positioning, technology, early adopters. Chapter 4 is the longest chapter in the report because it analyses 40 manufacturers of 48V mild hybrid cars and six saying no. That takes 98 pages because it includes many ghost diagrams, analyses, interviews, predictions and even presentations from the companies involved. Chapter 5 appraises the opportunity in buses and trucks, Chapter 6 analyses new 48V components such as GM MODACS, solar wrap, next rotating machines and batteries, supercapacitors. No other report comes close.
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