Electric vehicles Report

$2.6 trillion EV market emerging: new types and technologies, 100 sectors appraised

Electric Vehicles 2020-2030

Markets, technology, manufacturers, opportunities. Land, water, air: unique detail

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"Electric Vehicles 2020-2030" has over 240 pages of detailed distilled information largely as new infographics, forecast area graphs and technology event timelines. The Executive Summary and Conclusions is comprehensive yet easily absorbed by those in a hurry. Briefly learn the definitions, types of hybrid and pure electric powertrain and where they are headed overall - not just for cars. In one infographic, four important applicational sectors are divided into 13 EV types serving them and the characteristics are compared.
Who is winning in the EV marketplace and why are others finding it so hard to catch up? What performance features closely correlate with commercial success? An image compares the good and bad EV strategies of 21 manufacturers against 13 proven drivers of business success. See scope for mergers between 29 players against their nine EV product categories. Understand ten key enabling technologies for future EVs and how they will evolve over the years, with many new images. See how each will serve listed primary needs such as elimination of poisons over coming years. 2020-2030 forecasts give number, unit value and market value for all the main categories divided into their many sub-sectors. The full 100 category forecasts in Excel are included so you can run your own scenarios.
Chapter 2 Introduction looks much more closely into the types of powertrain and future changes in EV construction with integration, simplification then amazing new multi-functionality, autonomy, energy independence. See the China national plan for improvement in battery performance and how the Chinese acquisitions and rollouts across the world are mostly very shrewd and far more comprehensive than commonly realised. See many examples of formidable innovation in China and elsewhere. All 100 forecasting categories are tabled with characteristics, forecasting assumptions and market leaders.
Chapters 3 through 7 cover Aircraft, Buses, Cars, CAM and Trucks with detailed new infographics picturing everything from the electrified farm of the future to how major challenges of crewed aircraft will be addressed with new principles of electrically powered flight. Grasp cost trends and dates for internal combustion engine ICE parity 2020-2050 from graphs. New EVs such as sky taxis, robot shuttles and trackless road trams are assessed. One detailed infographic gives the timing and legal drivers of peak car and what results 2020-2050. Learn when the vast number of 48V mild hybrids will have pure electric modes and put a big squeeze on conventional hybrids and ICE cars.
Chapter 8 comprehensively looks at the technology and future of batteries, supercapacitors, motors, power electronics and energy harvesting in EVs land, water and air and the gaps in the market, including the huge importance of energy independent electric vehicles in later years all with a host of pictured examples with annotations and explanation. What energy storage improvements enable what new markets to 2030? Only IDTechEx has this experience, insight and detail.
Why now? From materials, component and vehicle suppliers to operators and others, there was unsatisfied demand for detailed appraisal and forecasts because so much is missed. No longer. The IDTechEx report "Electric Vehicles 2020-2030" is based on analysis of no less than 100 sectors, forecasting each to 2030 with a look at progress to 2050 in timelines constructed for markets and technology. IDTechEx has studied and forecasted EVs for over 20 years. It has over 15 PhD level analysts deployed globally, mostly multi-lingual.
The electric vehicle EV market (hybrid and pure electric) is twice the size of the electric car market and proliferating. Electric buses and trucks taken together will become a bigger market than cars. The new facts-based analysis by IDTechEx reveals a serious mismatch between typical reporting and what is really going on.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Basics and primary conclusions
1.2.EV powertrains and technology
1.3.What correlates with success of certain pure electric cars?
1.3.1.Range still strongly affects success of pure electric cars
1.3.2.Rigged markets boost sales
1.4.Major EV applicational categories compared
1.5.Largest EV manufacturers hybrid and pure electric and their future
1.5.1.Plug-in vehicles of all types: leaders by $ billion value
1.5.2.Good and bad EV strategy and execution: future EV winners from 21 auto companies on 13 proven criteria
1.5.3.Diversification and merger potential
1.5.4.Diversification and merger potential of 28 EV manufacturers
1.5.5.Tesla leadership and our estimate of timeline to 2035
1.5.6.Provided it does not run out of cash, Tesla strategy correct - Boston matrix
1.5.7.Tesla timeline 2020-2035 estimated by IDTechEx
1.5.8.Trying to catch Tesla
1.6.Ambitious new EV objectives drive radically new EV technologies
1.6.2.Multi-purposing transforms economics, saves lives, enriches experiences
1.6.4.Mobility as a Service MaaS
1.6.5.Charging with vehicle moving and energy independence
1.7.Ten EV key enabling technologies for 2020-2030
1.7.2.Structural electronics
1.7.3.Electric motor-generators
1.7.4.Traction battery systems including and battery charging and swapping
1.7.5.Energy harvesting and regeneration
1.7.7.Fuel cells
1.7.8.Power electronics
1.7.9.Low power electronics, sensors and sensor fusion
1.7.10.Thermal management
1.7.11.Software, connectivity, artificial intelligence
1.7.12.How ten key enabling technologies will improve to serve primary needs
1.8.Total markets by technology
1.8.1.Forecasts depend on battery cost: assumptions
1.8.2.Battery cost matters less in later years
1.8.3.Hybrid vs PEV - number thousand
1.8.4.Hybrid vs PEV - market value $ billion
1.9.Markets by applicational type
1.9.1.Applicational sectors - number thousand
1.9.2.Applicational sectors - market value $ billion
1.9.3.Buses - number thousand
1.9.4.Buses - market value $ billion
1.9.5.Trucks - number thousand
1.9.6.Trucks - market value $ billion
1.9.7.Cars - number thousand
1.9.8.Cars - $ billion
1.9.9.Two-wheeler and car-like - number thousand
1.9.10.Two-wheeler and car-like - market value $ billion
1.9.11.Aircraft - number thousand
1.9.12.Aircraft - market value $ billion
1.9.13.Marine - number thousand
1.9.14.Marine - $ billion
1.10.Markets by geographical region
1.10.2.Buses geographical split - numbers thousand
1.10.3.School buses geographical split - numbers thousand
1.11.Lithium-ion battery supply and demand 2020-2030
1.12.Number of pure electric car models available globally
2.1.How an Electric Vehicle EV works: basics
2.2.Electric Vehicle powertrain nomenclature
2.3.How an Electric Vehicle EV works: a closer look
2.4.Electric powertrains: 7 terms
2.5.Yet more jargon for motor position and functions
2.6.EV complexity roadmap
2.6.1.Radical simplification
2.6.2.Aircraft example
2.6.3.Motorcycles, boats, cars simplify: many benefits result
2.6.4.How it is done: electrification, wireless and structural electronics
2.6.5.Fabulous new functions can then be added: energy independent boat, multifunctional robot shuttle
2.7.Electric vehicles in the largest market: China
2.7.2.Buying brands, routes to market, innovation: example Geely
2.7.3.Pure electric vehicle adoption: small vehicles cost effective first
2.7.4.Trucks and buses
2.7.5.More Chinese companies will enter the EV top fifteen: CRRC
2.7.6.Innovation examples: solar drones, solar cars, solar roads
2.7.7.Some primary conclusions
2.7.8.Here Come 800 Volt EVs
2.8.100 EV categories: forecasting assumptions, characteristics, leaders
2.8.1.Construction, agriculture, mining part 1
2.8.2.Construction, agriculture, mining part 2
2.8.4.Other off-road
2.8.8.Car-like and allied
2.8.9.Military land
2.8.10.Two wheel
2.8.12.Crewed aircraft
2.8.15.Small robot and other
3.2.Why go electric for crewed electric aircraft?
3.3.Additional advantages of electric propulsion
3.4.Major challenges associated with crewed electric aircraft
3.5.Transition to electric aircraft: MEA, hybrid, pure electric
3.6.Categorisation of manned electric aircraft
3.7.Current short and medium-range addressable market
3.8.Current long-range addressable market
3.9.New addressable markets: VTOL, sky taxis etc.
3.10.Forecasts from major players 2020-2050
3.11.List of some key players and models by categorisation
3.12.Adoption timeline for crewed electric aircraft 2020-2050
3.13.Regulatory barriers and legislative drivers
3.14.Analysis of electric motor types in ten electric aircraft
3.15.Projects - Geographical Distribution
3.16.1.Widening uses and types
3.16.2.Large expenditure on high altitude drones
4.2.Why adopt buses?
4.3.Types of bus currently on sale
4.4.Buses population worldwide by types 2025
4.5.New types of electric bus: autonomous, not competing with conventional buses
4.6.Drivers and timing of bus electrification
4.7.Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
4.8.Electric bus leadership: focus on pure electric now
4.9.China buses go global: cost advantages
4.10.How China cost advantage facilitates market share
4.11.Electric bus key market events 2020-2040
4.11.1.Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
4.11.2.Pure electric bus delivery completion dates examples 2020-2040
4.11.3.Predicting the electric bus killer blow of lower up-front price by type 2020-2040
5.2.5Cars under threat
5.2.2.Peak in car sales then peak electric car sales k globally 2014-2050
5.3.Wrong vehicle and powertrain strategy can now destroy companies
5.4.Powertrain evolution
5.5.Pure electric cars
5.5.2.World's cheapest electric car
5.6.48V mild hybrid cars
5.6.1.Overview MH technology in 2030
5.7.Pure electric killing plug in hybrids
5.7.2.Upping pure electric plans
5.7.3.No range penalty
5.7.4.Conventional cars hit
5.7.5.Plug-in hybrid dead by 2030
5.8.Solar cars for everyone: never use a charging station
5.9.Electric car tipping point will delight and destroy
6.2.Market drivers
6.3.Construction site of the future: electric vehicles/ robots charged by movable zero gensets
6.4.Farm of the future: robots and drones charge from on-board solar and mobile "zero gensets"
6.5.Mine of the future: electric land and air vehicles charging from zero emission mine microgrids
6.6.Progress towards the end game: all electric CAM vehicles
6.7.CAM electric vehicle value market share $bn in 2019 and EV CAM $bn 2029
6.8.Major suppliers' coverage across CAM electric vehicles
6.9.Supplier appraisal Caterpillar
6.10.Supplier appraisal Komatsu
6.11.Revenues of top agricultural equipment companies
6.12.CAM EV market outlook: examples hybrid vs pure electric
7.2.Upcoming restrictions for commercial vehicles
7.3.Specialty vehicles
7.4.More carrot, more stick
7.5.Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics
7.6.Benefits from truck and van electrification
7.7.Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck?
7.8.Need for a systems approach
7.9.Limited 48V opportunity with delivery trucks / vans
8.2.Recession prone but recent growth
8.3.2.Fuel cells
9.2.Vehicles by Balquon, Alke, Polaris, Columbia, Hummer, Green Wheel, Quantum FCT
9.3.Latest progress
9.3.1.Autonomous off-road vehicles
9.3.2.Otokar armored vehicle Turkey
9.3.3.Nikola utility-task all-terrian vehicle USA
9.3.5.Arquus replacement for Humvee Sweden
9.3.6.GE, DARPA and QinetiQ US UK
9.3.7.GM Defense, Chevrolet Silverado USA
10.1.Electric Boats and Ships: a long history?
10.2.Marine Market Segments
10.3.Torqeedo: Moving Up to 100kW!
10.4.Torqeedo Inboards and Outboards
10.5.Key Growth Market: C&I Vessels
10.6.Focus of emissions regulation
10.7.Emission control areas (ECA)
10.8.Unprecedented global cap on Sulphur
10.9.World's First Pure Electric Container Ship
10.10.Huge Rise in CO2 Emissions from Shipping Forecast
10.11.Analysis of regulatory Developments
10.12.Battery Deployment in Boats and Ships
10.13.Crossover with the Auto Industry
11.1.Electric two-wheelers - introduction
11.2.The two-wheeler narrative - regional distribution
11.3.Europe is a growing market for e-bikes
11.4.Why e-bikes are popular
11.5.'e-bike' can mean different things
11.6.Regulations vary across the world
11.7.Production of electric two wheelers in China
11.8.Last-mile travel important in India
11.9.India market recovering, still reliant on subsidies
11.10.What is an e-motorcycle?
11.11.Historic motorcycle sales: EU and US
11.12.Harley Davidson going electric in India?
11.13.Key player analysis - Zero Motorcycles
11.14.E-motorcycle companies need new markets
12.1.1.Rapid change
12.1.2.What does an EV battery pack look like?
12.1.3.Li-ion battery adoption by type of EV
12.1.4.Future types of battery for EVs
12.1.5.Lithium-ion battery design
12.1.6.Changing too fast
12.1.7.Active electrode options
12.1.8.Alternative battery technologies for future EVs
12.1.9.Progress to less and no battery
12.2.2.Supercapacitors and their derivatives: gaps in the market
12.2.3.Even better batteries and supercapacitors a real prospect: future W/kg vs Wh/kg
12.2.4.Supercapacitors in the automotive sector: examples
12.2.5.Powertrain penetration by supercapacitors
12.2.6.Supercapacitors in the on-road automotive sector 2010-2030
12.2.7.Performance enhancement and multi-purposing
12.2.8.Supercapacitor buses
12.2.9.Structural supercapacitors ZapGo, Lamborghini Terzo Millennio and others
12.3.2.Market dynamics 2020-2030
12.3.3.Traction machine types used to propel electric vehicles land, water, air
12.3.4.Examples of traction machine technologies by operating principle
12.3.5.Traction motor opportunities off road, often more profitable, by power kW
12.3.6.Timeline electric aircraft thrust 2020-2030: where the most radical advances occur
12.3.7.Traction machine-with-controller value market: new vehicles 2030 % by vehicle application
12.3.8.Where the profit will lie: traction machine value gross margin 2030 % by sector
12.3.9.Ten traction machine trends 2020-30
12.3.10.Permanent magnets more popular but eventually unnecessary?
12.4.Power electronics
12.4.1.Taking more percentage of vehicle cost
12.4.2.Voltage increase
12.4.3.More and more power electronics: complexity, proliferation, added types
12.4.4.Review of current power modules in electric vehicles (HEV, PHEV, BEV)
12.5.Energy harvesting
12.5.2.EH transducer principles and materials
12.5.3.EH technologies by actual and potential usefulness
12.5.4.Challenges of EH technologies
12.5.5.Harvesting for on-road vehicles
12.5.6.Harvesting for marine vehicles
12.5.7.Harvesting for air vehicles
12.5.8.Integrated multi-mode energy harvesting
12.5.9.EV end game: Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
12.5.10.Energy independent restaurant van and boats
12.5.11.Energy independent ship opportunity
12.5.12.Solar Ship EIEV inflatable fixed wing aircraft, sun alone
12.6.Thermal Management and Fire Protection - Battery Packs
12.6.1.Battery Thermal Management - Introduction
12.6.2.Battery thermal management - hot and cold
12.6.3.Cell chemistry impact thermal runaway likelihood
12.6.4.Analysis of passive battery cooling methods
12.6.5.Analysis of active battery cooling methods
12.6.6.Emerging routes - Immersion cooling
12.6.7.Emerging routes - phase change materials
12.6.8.Main incentives for liquid cooling
12.6.9.Shifting OEM Strategies - liquid cooling
12.6.10.Global trends in OEM cooling methodologies adopted
12.6.11.Is tab cooling a solution?
12.6.12.Thermal management - pack and module overview
12.6.13.Thermal Interface Material (TIM) - pack and module overview
12.6.14.Insulating cell-to-cell foams
12.6.15.Heat spreaders or interspersed cooling plates - pouches and prismatic
12.6.16.Fire protection - introduction
12.6.17.Thermal runaway prevention - various options
12.6.18.Thermal runaway prevention - cylindrical cell-to-cell
13.1.1.The automation levels in detail
13.1.2.Functions of autonomous driving at different levels
13.1.3.Future mobility scenarios: autonomous and shared
13.1.4.Chess pieces: autonomous driving tasks
13.1.5.Typical toolkit for autonomous cars
13.1.6.Perception technologies and AI
13.1.7.Anatomy of an autonomous vehicle
13.1.8.Evolution of sensor suite from Level 1 to Level 5
13.1.9.What is sensor fusion?
13.1.10.Sensor fusion: past and future
13.2.Lidars Lidar: market segments & applications Lidar: four important technology choices
13.2.3.Comparison of Lidar, Radar, Camera & Ultrasonic sensors
13.2.4.Automotive Lidar: SWOT analysis
13.2.5.Emerging technology trends
13.2.6.Comparison of TOF & FMCW Lidar
13.2.7.Laser technology choices
13.2.8.Comparison of common laser type & wavelength options
13.2.9.Beam steering technology choices
13.2.10.Comparison of common beam steering options
13.2.11.Photodetector technology choices
13.2.12.Comparison of common photodetectors & materials
13.2.13.Mechanical Lidar players, rotating & non-rotating
13.2.14.Micromechanical Lidar players, MEMS & other
13.2.15.Pure solid-state Lidar players, OPA & liquid crystal
13.2.16.Pure solid-state Lidar players, 3D flash
13.2.17.Players by technology & funding secured
13.2.18.Average Lidar cost per vehicle by technology
13.3.1.Why are radars essential to ADAS and autonomy?
13.3.2.Towards ADAS and autonomous driving: increasing radar use
13.3.3.SRR, MRR and LRR: different functions
13.3.4.Radar: which parameters limit the achievable KPIs
13.3.5.Towards the radar of the future
13.3.6.Evolution of semiconductor technology in automotive radar
13.3.7.Benchmarking of semiconductor technologies for mmwave radars
13.3.8.Many chip makers are on-board
13.3.9.Function integration trends: towards true radar-in-a-chip
13.3.10.Evolution of radar chips towards all-in-one designs
13.3.11.Board trends: from separate RF board to hybrid to full package integration?
13.3.12.The evolving role of the automotive radar towards full 360degree imaging
13.3.13.AI trend: moving beyond just presence detection
13.3.14.Other trends: increasing range, angular and elevation resolution
13.3.15.Radar data: challenges of spare point cloud
13.3.16.Data fusion challenge: mismatch in point cloud densities
13.3.17.Training neutral networks on radar data: the labelling challenge
13.3.18.Automatic data labelling: early fusion of camera, lidar and radar data
13.4.AI software and computing platform
13.4.1.Terminologies explained: AI, machine learning, artificial neural networks, deep neural networks
13.4.2.Artificial intelligence: waves of development
13.4.3.Classical method: feature descriptors
13.4.4.Typical image detection deep neutral network
13.4.5.Algorithm training process in a single layer
13.4.6.Towards deep learning by deepening the neutral network
13.4.7.The main varieties of deep learning approaches explained
13.4.8.There is no single AI solution to autonomous driving
13.4.9.Application of AI to autonomous driving
13.4.10.End-to-end deep learning vs classical approach
13.4.11.Imitation learning for trajectory prediction: Valeo (1)
13.4.12.Imitation learning for trajectory prediction: Valeo (2)
13.4.13.Hybrid AI for Level 4/5 automation
13.4.14.Hybrid AI for sensor fusion
13.4.15.Hybrid AI for motion planning
13.4.16.Autonomous driving requires different validation system
13.4.17.Validation of deep learning system?
13.4.18.The vulnerable road user challenge in city traffic
13.4.19.Multi-layered security needed for vehicle system
13.5.High-definition (HD) map
13.5.1.Lane models: uses and shortcomings
13.5.2.Localization: absolute vs relative
13.5.3.HD mapping assets: from ADAS map to full maps for level-5 autonomy
13.5.4.Many layers of an HD map for autonomous driving
13.5.5.HD map as a service
13.5.6.Who are the players?
13.5.7.Why Vehicle-to-everything (V2X) is important for future autonomous vehicles
13.5.8.Use cases of 5G NR C-V2X for autonomous driving

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