電気自動車(EV)市場は今後10年間で大幅に成長し、これに伴いバッテリーセル、パックおよび関連する材料の需要も増大してゆきます。このツールにより IDTechEx による物質集約度仮説を確認することができ、IDTechEx または独自の売上数量とバッテリーパック容量の見通し数値のいずれかを利用して2021年から2031年までの複数の材料に対する需要を判断することができます。
Traction batteries are the key to electric vehicles (EVs) and present very different material requirements to the combustion engines they help replace. Their meteoric rise will lead to much greater demand for several materials markets which otherwise would see only modest growth. For example, while the combustion engine and transmission rely heavily on aluminium and steel alloys, Li-ion batteries also require a great deal of nickel, cobalt, aluminium, lithium, copper, insulation, thermal interface materials and much more at the cell- and pack-level.
This spreadsheet-based tool from IDTechEx lists our assumptions for several material intensities at a cell- and pack-level for battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) batteries in the car market. It also provides a forecast for the multi-metal and other materials demand in tonnes from 2018-2031. In addition to these forecasts, this tool allows you to use your own forecasts for BEV and PHEV unit sales and battery capacities to see how these variables impact demand over the next 10 years. A scenarios tool is also included which allows for several sales forecasts to be compared simultaneously for individual materials.
Example charts for the material demand for battery cells and packs segmented by material, using an arbitrary forecast line for demonstration purposes. Source: Scenario Forecasting Spreadsheet: Materials for Electric Vehicle Battery Cells and Packs
Material intensities throughout the tool are determined using extensive IDTechEx research which includes primary interviews with relevant players in the industry as well as IDTechEx analysis conducted by collating secondary sources. A comprehensive model database of over 240 BEV and PHEV models sold between 2015-2020 is used to determine trends such as battery capacity, cell and pack energy density, thermal management strategy, cell geometry market shares and cell chemistry market share.
Example output chart from IDTechEx scenario tool using arbitrary forecasts for demonstration. Different EV unit sales forecasts can be compared for the effect on various material demands. Source: Scenario Forecasting Spreadsheet: Materials for Electric Vehicle Battery Cells and Packs
Several components are considered in this tool. For the battery cells, the materials used in cathodes, anodes, electrolyte, separators, binders and casings are forecast. For the battery pack, materials required for interconnects, enclosures, thermal management, thermal interface materials, inter-cell pads and insulation and fire-retardant materials are forecast.
The materials that are covered and forecast in this tool are: aluminium (cell- and pack- level), carbon black, cell casings, carbon fibre reinforced polymer, cobalt, copper (cell- and pack-level), fire-retardants, glass fibre reinforced polymer, graphite (anodes), inter-cell materials (encapsulants, cushioning, module housings, etc.), iron, lithium, manganese, nickel, polyvinylidene difluoride binder, silicon anodes, steel, thermal management and thermal interface materials. For more information around our assumptions, the technologies, trends, market analysis and forecasting please see the report: "Materials for Electric Vehicle Battery Cells and Packs 2021-2031".