先進的な電気自動車 2020-2040年: IDTechEx

自動車業界を根底から揺るがす変革の中で、電気自動車は2040年までに1.8兆ドル規模に拡大する原動力に

先進的な電気自動車 2020-2040年

電気自動車、燃料電池自動車、自動運転車、ピークカー、要素技術、リチウムイオン・バッテリー、電動トラクションモーター


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新型コロナウイルス感染拡大の中、最新の IDTechEx レポート『先進的な電気自動車 2020-2040年』は世界の電気自動車業界に関する地域別詳細ならびに2040年までの長期見通しを付した包括的分析を提供しています。またこれはリチウムイオン・バッテリーと電動トラクションモーターから自動運転車の技術に至る移行を可能とする要素技術の詳細な分析も提供しています。
In their simplest form, an electric car consists of an energy storage device powering one electric traction motor, which spins wheels via a transmission. First invented in the 19th century, electric cars ultimately lost the battle to the internal combustion engine, unable to compete with the energy density of gasoline. Over one hundred years later, the Li-ion battery is enabling their meteoric rise as a solution for reducing local emissions and green-house gases.
 
Once derided as toys, today electric cars with barely 15 years of development offer cutting-edge automotive technology and performance, from sub 2.5 second 0 - 60mph acceleration, to autonomous driving functionality and solar bodywork. Battery-electric vehicles (BEV) are the endgame: zero emissions at point of use and the focus of automotive startups (and China). On the other hand, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) provide a short / mid-term solution, soothing initial fears of range anxiety; PHEVs tend to be the focus of incumbent automakers but are increasingly losing share to BEVs.
 
Strictly, 'Electric Vehicle' is an umbrella term and technology agnostic to the onboard energy storage device: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV), for example, are also 'electric vehicles' in addition to those powered by Li-ion batteries. Their future is discussed in the report, including why they will have a place in some car segments and in non-car categories, but ultimately will not be in mainstream cars.
 
The aim of this report is to cover the global electric car industry in detail, with a regional breakdown as well as insight into the underlying technologies enabling the transition. The report reveals current trends and the evolution of these technologies, with a view to their impact on the overall car market.
 
We summarise key sections of the report below.
 
Forecasts and COVID-19 Impact
In the report we provide long-term forecasts to 2040 for electric passenger cars by region (China, US, UK, France, Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW) and by powertrain (battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, fuel-cell). Forecasts are presented in number of vehicles, battery demand (GWh) and market size ($ billion), with historic data back to 2015.
 
All forecasts are adjusted to reflect the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic: amid economic uncertainty and unemployment, the auto industry has been one of the hardest hit as car purchases, typically the second largest consumer purchase (the first is a house), are now more difficult to justify for millions of consumers worldwide.
 
 
Source: IDTechEx with historic data from industry associations
 
Li-ion Batteries
 
The report identifies and explains trends in Li-ion batteries for electric cars. For example, nickel content is increasing while cobalt content is decreasing: why is this important for automakers and the overall sustainability of the industry? We also provide historic market data on the Li-ion technology mix based on our database of electric cars in top automarkets: China has phased-out LFP from over half its car market to less than 2% today; why will Tesla contradict this and adopt LFP for Model 3 sales in China?
 
Electric Traction Motors
 
All electric motors have the same purpose of converting electrical energy to mechanical energy, but there are many types of motors that derive their names from their construction, principles of operation, or even from the control technique employed on them. In this report we explore why automakers are converging on permanent magnet motors, multiple motors, provide a benchmarking analysis of the different motor types and, finally, an outlook for how we expect the motor market to evolve over the next ten years.
 
Autonomous Vehicle Technology
 
We predict the rise of autonomous vehicles will have a profound impact on the global car market as it enables mobility-as-a-service to become cheaper than private-car ownership. The report shows forecasts of autonomous passenger car miles, revealing how this will lead to a fundamental peak-car scenario. We appraise the key underlying technologies such as LiDAR and camera-based systems: is the camera-only approach a high-risk gamble or a winning strategy that will be copied?
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アイディーテックエックス株式会社 (IDTechEx日本法人)
担当: 村越美和子 m.murakoshi@idtechex.com
Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.BEV + PHEV Cars 2015-2040: % of Global Car Market
1.2.BEV + PHEV Cars 2020-2040: Market Size ($ trillion)
1.3.BEV + PHEV Cars 2015-2040: China, Europe, US, RoW
1.4.BEV + PHEV Cars 2015-2040: Battery Demand (GWh)
1.5.Electric Car Forecast: COVID-19 Impact
1.6.BEV, PHEV, FCEV cars 2015-2040 (cars, millions)
1.7.Global Car Market 2020-2040: COVID-19 Impact
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.What is an Electric Vehicle?
2.2.Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
2.3.Parallel and Series Hybrids: Explained
2.4.Electric Cars: Typical Specs
2.5.What's Driving the Transition to Electric Vehicles?
2.6.What are the Barriers for Electric Vehicles?
2.7.Comparison of Popular Electric Car Models
2.8.Global Car Sales: the Addressable Market
2.9.Differences in Short-term and Long-term 'Peak Car'
2.10.Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained
2.11.Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans
2.12.Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans
2.13.Debunking EV Myths: Emissions Just Shift to Electricity Generation?
3.ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA
3.1.China Electric Car Forecast 2015-2040 (cars, millions)
3.2.The Rise of Car Sales in China
3.3.Six Reasons for the Fall of Car Sales in China
3.4.Summary of Falling Car Sales in China 2018-2020
3.5.What's Driving Electrification in China?
3.6.China: Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
3.7.2019-2020 New Energy Vehicle Decline
3.8.China EV policy: 2019-2022
3.9.China Purchase Subsidy 2020-2022
3.10.China: Double Credit Policy
3.11.China Electric Vehicle Subsidy Multipliers
3.12.China EV Policy History: 2010-2015
3.13.China EV Policy History: 2016-2018
3.14.New Energy Vehicle Sales by Month, 2016-2020
4.ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN EUROPE
4.1.Europe Electric Car Forecast 2016-2040 (UK, France, Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, RoE)
4.2.Concentration of Electric Car Sales
4.3.Europe: Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
4.4.Europe Emissions Standards
4.5.Europe: Moving from Carrot to Stick
4.6.Overview of Supportive Policy in Europe
4.7.UK Purchase Subsidy
4.8.Germany Purchase Subsidy
4.9.France Purchase Subsidy
4.10.Austria Purchase Subsidy
4.11.Ireland Purchase Subsidy
4.12.Belgium Purchase Subsidy (Ended)
4.13.Spain Purchase Subsidy (Ended)
4.14.Luxembourg Purchase Subsidy
4.15.Other European Purchase Subsidies
5.ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE US
5.1.US Plug-in Car Forecast
5.2.US : Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
5.3.US: Plug-in Electric Vehicle Tax Credit
5.4.US Battery Sizes
5.5.Automaker Progress Towards Tax Credits
5.6.US State Incentives
5.7.Pickup Truck Popularity in the US
5.8.US Pickup Trucks: OEM Market Share
5.9.Midsize Pickup Trucks (ICE)
5.10.Full-Size Pickup Trucks (ICE)
5.11.US Pickups Trucks a $132 Billion Dollar Market
5.12.Why Electric Pickup Trucks?
5.13.Tesla: Cybertruck
5.14.Ford: F-150 EV
5.15.GMC: Hummer EV Electric Super Truck
5.16.Nikola: Badger
5.17.Fiat Chrysler: Ram / Jeep pickup electrification?
5.18.Rivian: R1T
5.19.Rivian: Skateboard Platform
5.20.Lordstown Motors: Endurance
5.21.Workhorse: W-15
5.22.Bollinger Motors: B2
5.23.Bollinger Motors: Electric Platform
5.24.Atlis Motor Vehicles: XT
5.25.Hercules Electric Vehicles: Alpha
5.26.Karma Automotive
5.27.Neuron T.One
5.28.Electric Pickups: Conclusions
6.PREMIUM CARS: SEGMENT ANALYSIS AND BATTERY DEMAND
6.1.Definition of 'Premium' Vehicle
6.2.Premium Model Specs
6.3.Premium BEV Battery Sizes
6.4.Premium BEV Battery Forecast
6.5.Premium Battery Demand Estimate
7.ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
7.1.Li-ion Batteries
7.1.1.What is a Li-ion battery?
7.1.2.The Battery Trilemma
7.1.3.Electrochemistry Definitions 1
7.1.4.Electrochemistry Definitions 2
7.1.5.Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
7.1.6.Battery Wish List
7.1.7.More Than One Type of Li-ion battery
7.1.8.NMC: from 111 to 811
7.1.9.Cobalt: Price Volatility
7.1.10.Cathode Performance Comparison
7.1.11.EV Models with NMC 811
7.1.12.811 Commercialisation Examples
7.1.13.Commercial Anodes: Graphite
7.1.14.The Promise of Silicon-based Anodes
7.1.15.The Reality of Silicon
7.1.16.Silicon: Incremental Steps
7.1.17.What is in a Cell?
7.1.18.Inactive Materials Negatively Affect Energy Density
7.1.19.Commercial Battery Packaging Technologies
7.1.20.Comparison of Commercial Cell Geometries
7.1.21.Cell Geometry Choices: Reason or Random?
7.1.22.What is NCMA?
7.1.23.Historic Li-ion Technology Mix, 2015-2019 (Plug-in Cars)
7.1.24.LFP: Second Coming?
7.1.25.Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion
7.1.26.Li-ion Chemistry Snapshot: 2020, 2025, 2030
7.1.27.Problems with Batteries
7.1.28.Hyundai Kona Takes out a Roof in Canada
7.1.29.Battery Reduction
7.2.Fuel Cell Cars
7.2.1.Historic Growth of Fuel Cell Cars
7.2.2.BEV, PHEV, FCEV Cars 2015-2040 (cars, millions)
7.2.3.Models overview
7.2.4.BMW Fuel Cell Car
7.2.5.Long-haul Trucking Opportunity?
7.2.6.Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells: Tech Overview
7.2.7.Tech Recap: Fuel Cell Inefficiency and Cooling Methods
7.2.8.Diminishing Opportunity for Fuel Cells in EVs?
7.2.9.Barriers for Fuel Cells
7.2.10.Fuel cost comparison per kWh of propulsion in Norway
7.2.11.Alternative fuels generation - 2030 vs. 2050
7.3.Electric Traction Motors
7.3.1.Electric Traction Motors: Introduction
7.3.2.Brushless DC Motors (BLDC): Working Principle
7.3.3.BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages
7.3.4.BLDC Motors: Benchmarking Scores
7.3.5.Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle
7.3.6.PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
7.3.7.PMSM: Benchmarking Scores
7.3.8.Differences Between PMSM and BLDC
7.3.9.Wound Rotor Synchronous Motor (WRSM): Working Principle
7.3.10.WRSM Motors: Benchmarking Scores
7.3.11.WRSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
7.3.12.AC Induction Motors (ACIM): Working Principle
7.3.13.AC Induction Motor (ACIM)
7.3.14.AC Induction Motors: Benchmarking Scores
7.3.15.AC Induction Motor: Advantages, Disadvantages
7.3.16.Reluctance Motors
7.3.17.Reluctance Motor: Working Principle
7.3.18.Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM)
7.3.19.Switched Reluctance Motors: Benchmarking Scores
7.3.20.Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance (PMSR)
7.3.21.PMSR Motors: Benchmarking Scores
7.4.Electric Traction Motors: Summary and Benchmarking Results
7.4.1.Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
7.4.2.Motor Efficiency Comparison
7.4.3.Magnet Price Increase?
7.4.4.Multiple Motors: Explained
7.4.5.Lucid Motors: Dual PMSM?
7.4.6.Motor per Vehicle and kWp per Vehicle Assumptions
7.4.7.Electric Traction Motor Technology Forecast 2020-2030
8.AUTONOMOUS CARS
8.1.Why Autonomous Cars?
8.2.Levels of Automation
8.3.Future Mobility Scenarios
8.4.Autonomous Driving Testing Race
8.5.Evolution of Sensor Suite: Level 1 to Level 5
8.6.Autonomous Vehicle = Electric Vehicle?
8.7.Lidar Versus Camera
8.8.Lidar Costs
8.9.Lidar, Radar, Camera & Ultrasonic Sensor Comparison
8.10.How Many Cameras Needed: Level 1 - Level 5
9.FORECASTS & ASSUMPTIONS
9.1.Global Car Sales: the Addressable Market
9.2.Global Car Sales Forecast 2020-2040: Methodology
9.3.Short-term Forecast Methodology (Cars)
9.4.Electric Car Forecasts
9.5.Cars Battery Assumptions and Demand
9.6.Forecast Assumptions
9.7.Autonomous Vehicle Assumptions and Uncertainty
9.8.Battery Shortage Assumptions
9.9.Li-ion Cell and Pack Price Assumptions 2020-2030
9.10.Assumptions: Upfront Price Parity
 

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