レドックスフロー電池 2021-2031年: IDTechEx

Renewable energy demands more storage capacity. IDTechEx forecasts a multi-billion market in 2031

レドックスフロー電池 2021-2031年

LCOS 算定および市場見通しを盛り込んだレドックスフロー電池の技術と市場分析


製品情報 概要 目次 価格 Related Content
このレドックスフロー電池調査レポートには、科学的な仮説に基づいた RFB 市場の大きな変動が盛り込まれています。IDTechEx はリチウムイオン電池とレドックスフロー電池システムの均等化蓄電原価(LCOS)の計算により、レポートにおいて仮説を証明しています。変動性再生可能エネルギーの大量導入によりエネルギー業界はさらなるエネルギー貯蔵能力を要求されることになります。IDTechEx はRFB 市場が2031年に数十億ドル規模になると予測しています。
この10年間で、クリーンエネルギーは大きなトレンドとなり、それに伴い、エネルギー貯蔵、電気自動車、二酸化炭素回収、水素など、さまざまなサブテーマが生まれました。
当初、エネルギー貯蔵の焦点はコストや効率を分析するシステムの技術的側面でしたが、その焦点は徐々に電力網に移っています。変動性再生可能エネルギー(VRE)の増加に伴い、リチウムイオン電池以外の定置型蓄電デバイスが市場に登場していますが、IDTechExでは、次の10年向けてレドックスフロー電池が大きく採用されると予測しています。
 
◆この調査レポートで対象とする主なコンテンツ(詳細は目次のページでご確認ください)
レドックスフロー電池の化学的性質および材料:
• RFB の作動原理
• それぞれの化学的性質の長所/短所
• 化学的性質の技術分析
• RFB メーカーと商用製品に関する市場分析
 
RFB 市場見通しおよび LCOS 分析:
• レドックスフロー電池見通し 2021-2031年:
• これまでより大規模な再生可能エネルギー設備取付による貯蔵容量拡大の必要性
• VRE の浸透見通し
• LCOS の算定方式の説明
• LCOS 比較: LiB および RFB
 
Over the last decade clean energy became a megatrend, and with it a multitude of sub-topics like energy storage, electric vehicles, carbon capture, hydrogen and many others.
 
While the initially focus of energy storage was the technical aspect of the systems, analysing their cost or efficiency, focus has slowly shifted toward the power grid. Driven by the adoption of an increasing amount of variable renewable energies (VREs), stationary storage devices - besides Li-ion batteries - are approaching the market, and IDTechEx foresees a large adoption of Redox Flow Batteries toward the end of the next decade, as described in the updated report: "Redox Flow Batteries 2021-2031".
 
From the adoption of the Paris Agreement, and the acknowledgment of the pollution problem, several countries around the world started to address the pollution problem, working on the most polluting sectors, among them: automotive and power generation.
 
While the electrification of the automotive sector was (and still is) mostly related to a technical aspect of efficiency of the car power source (the Li-ion battery pack), the power sector focusses its attention on the adoption of renewable energies, or more specifically variable renewable energy (VRE), like solar photovoltaic (SolarPV), and wind turbines.
 
Because of the intermittent nature of the wind and the sun ("The wind doesn't always blow" and "The sun doesn't always shine"), the increasing adoption of VRE is having a direct impact on the existing power grid infrastructure. Developed over the last hundred years and based on a centralized structure, where central power plants provided energy to the final consumer, the adoption of VRE is changing this scenario toward a decentralized network.
 
Scientific studies and countries with large renewable energy adoption have both shown the necessity to increase the power grid resiliency to allow greater adoption of VRE and decarbonize the power sector. The main tool to reach this target is through adoption of energy storage systems (ESS).
 
ESS includes a multitude of devices, differentiated by the type of storage (electrochemical, gravitational, etc.), and by the storage capacity, hence the hours of storage each device can provide. To understand the role of RFB in the power grid, IDTechEx investigated the power grid need to install stationary energy storage, and particularly medium and long duration energy storage.
 
Because the ES necessity is linked to the adoption of VRE, this trend has been extrapolated by IDTechEx from a study conducted by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW).
 
Figure 1. Energy Storage capacity and trend per VRE penetration.
BESS companies are already looking at longer durations of storage, as also mentioned from one of the largest battery manufacturers over an interview with IDTechEx and academic professors.
 
Because longer duration technologies than Li-ion battery have cost advantages on the specific energy cost price, IDTechEx has calculated and compared the Levelized Cost of Storage for Li-ion batteries and Redox Flow Batteries, to show the advantage of RFB specific cost ($/kWh) over the technology lifetime.
 
Finally, based on future VRE adoption and electricity consumption trends, IDTechEx forecasted the future adoption of RFB and related market size.
 
Figure 2. IDTechEx market forecast and RFB capacity installed over the next decade.
The Redox Flow Batteries 2021-2031 report provides a complete overview about the Redox Flow Battery system, showing the reader the different types of Redox Flow Battery chemistries, investigating advantages and disadvantages of each of them. A further relevant aspect of the report is related to the components and materials adopted in the main RFB types.
 
Finally, the core part of this report update targets the future applications of RFB. Because the RFB sector has struggled over the past few years to get its position on the market, due to strong competition from the well-established Li-ion battery systems, in this report update IDTechEx explain and address the possible roles which the redox flow battery will play in the future.
 
Finally, to economically explain the great technical advantage of RFB regarding the large energy throughput of the device, IDTechEx calculate the Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) for LiB and RFB systems, showing the different trend under specific assumptions.
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アイディーテックエックス株式会社 (IDTechEx日本法人)
担当: 村越美和子 m.murakoshi@idtechex.com
Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Introduction to "Redox Flow Batteries 2021-2031"
1.2.Why RFB and not Lithium?
1.3.IDTechEx calculation of Levelized Cost of Storage
1.4.LCOS Calculation: Formula and Assumptions
1.5.High and low RFB adoption trend
1.6.High and low RFB adoption scenarios
1.7.Redox Flow Battery market forecast 2021-2031
1.8.Forecast comparison with previous report version
1.9.RFB Penetration - comparison with Previous version
1.10.Vanadium, Zinc, Iron - the great RFB contenders
1.11.What about the Organic Flow Battery?
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Introduction: the role of energy storage
2.2.New avenues for stationary storage
2.3.Finding the right market
2.4.The battery trilemma
2.5.The increasingly important role of stationary storage
2.6.Stationary energy storage is not new
2.7.New avenues for stationary storage
2.8.The slow market of Redox Flow Batteries
2.9.Competing technologies: Li-ion
2.10.The LCOS of Li-ion and RFBs
2.11.Values provided at the customer side
2.12.Values provided at the utility side
2.13.Values provided in ancillary services
2.14.The centralised structure of the power grid
2.15.A problem of "flexibility"
2.16.Flexibility has impact on different time-scale
2.17.Phases of VRE integration issues
2.18.iea VRE adoption phases depend on grid stability
2.19.An increasing demand for storage
2.20.Higher VRE penetration requires more storage
2.21.The position of RFB in the power grid
3.REDOX FLOW BATTERY CHEMISTRIES
3.1.Definitions: What is a battery?
3.2.Definitions: Electrochemistry definitions
3.3.Definitions: Efficiencies
3.4.Redox Flow Battery: Energy & Power
3.5.Redox Flow Battery: Working Principle
3.6.Redox Flow Battery: RFB views
3.7.Redox Flow Battery: Decoupled power and energy
3.8.Redox Flow Battery: Fit-and-forget philosophy
3.9.Comparison of RFBs and conventional batteries
3.10.Choice of redox-active species and solvents
3.11.Redox Flow Battery Classification
3.12.History of RFB
3.13.RFB chemistries: Iron/Chromium
3.14.RFB chemistries: Polysulfides/Bromine flow batteries (PSB)
3.15.RFB chemistries: Vanadium/Bromine
3.16.RFB chemistries: All Vanadium (VRFB)
3.17.RFB chemistries: Zinc Bromine flow battery (ZBB) - Hybrid
3.18.RFB chemistries: Hydrogen/Bromide - Hybrid
3.19.RFB Chemistries: All-Iron - Hybrid
3.20.RFB Chemistries: all Iron
3.21.All iron-RFB: Disadvantages
3.22.ESS Inc.: Historical development
3.23.ESS Inc.: Products
3.24.Voltstorage began investigating Iron-RFB
3.25.Iron: the future competitor of Vanadium
3.26.Other RFBs: Organic Redox Flow Battery
3.27.Other RFBs: non-aqueous
3.28.Other RFBs: Lab-scale flow battery projects
3.29.Other RFBs: Microflow batteries?
3.30.Technology Recap
3.31.Cost factors at electrolyte level
3.32.Hype Curve® for RFB technologies
3.33.Market Analysis: Technology Market Share
3.34.RFB Companies Market Share
3.35.Market Analysis: Energy Densities Comparison for Residential Sector
3.36.List of RFB Producers: Categorized Chemistry
4.RFB MATERIALS
4.1.Materials for Redox Flow Batteries
4.2.Membranes: Overview
4.3.Membranes: Mesoporous Separators
4.4.Membranes: Ionic Exchange Membranes (IEM)
4.5.Membranes: Composite Membranes, and Solid State Conductors
4.6.Bipolar Electrodes
4.7.Bipolar Electrodes: Parasitic Effect
4.8.Bipolar Electrodes: Electrode Materials
4.9.Electrodes: Carbon-based Electrodes
4.10.(Bipolar) Electrodes
4.11.Flow distributors and turbulence promoters
4.12.Electrolyte flow circuit
4.13.Cost breakdown of a vanadium-redox flow battery
4.14.RFB value chain
4.15.Raw materials for RFB electrolytes
4.16.Vanadium: Overview
4.17.Vanadium: Mining and Products
4.18.Vanadium: Ore Processing
4.19.The Vanadium Industry
4.20.Vanadium: Price Trend
5.LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE (LCOS) CALCULATION
5.1.Levelized Cost of Storage for LiB and RFB
5.2.LCOS Calculation: Formula and Assumptions
5.3.Why RFB have lower LCOS than LiB
5.4.LCOS data
5.5.LCOS Calculation
5.6.Consideration and Conclusion for LCOS result
6.REDOX FLOW BATTERY FORECAST 2021-2031
6.1.Redox Flow Battery market forecast 2021-2031
6.2.Forecast comparison with previous report version
6.3.RFB Penetration - comparison with Previous version
6.4.Forecast calculation steps
6.5.RFB forecast 2021-2031: detailed description
6.6.VRE and primary energy consumption forecast
6.7.VRE Penetration forecast: RFB opportunity
6.8.High and Low RFB adoption scenarios
6.9.High and Low RFB adoption trend
6.10.High and Low RFB adoption scenarios
6.11.IDTechEx Market Forecast 2021-2031 calculation
6.12.IDTechEx's forecast: Limiting factors
7.APPENDIX
7.1.Technology and manufacturing readiness
 

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レポート概要

スライド 151
フォーキャスト 2031
発行日 May 2021
ISBN 9781913899493
 

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