전기차 시장은, 향후 10년 동안배터리 셀, 팩 및 관련 재료에 대한 수요와 함께 엄청난 성장을 보일 것이다. 이 도구를 이용하면, IDTechEx가 만드는 재료 집약도 가정을 참조하고 IDTechEx 또는 유닛 판매 및 배터리 팩 용량에 대한 자체 예측 수치를 사용하고 또한 2018-2031년의 여러 재료에 대한 재료 수요를 결정할 수 있다.
Traction batteries are the key to electric vehicles (EVs) and present very different material requirements to the combustion engines they help replace. Their meteoric rise will lead to much greater demand for several materials markets which otherwise would see only modest growth. For example, while the combustion engine and transmission rely heavily on aluminium and steel alloys, Li-ion batteries also require a great deal of nickel, cobalt, aluminium, lithium, copper, insulation, thermal interface materials and much more at the cell- and pack-level.
This spreadsheet-based tool from IDTechEx lists our assumptions for several material intensities at a cell- and pack-level for battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) batteries in the car market. It also provides a forecast for the multi-metal and other materials demand in tonnes from 2018-2031. In addition to these forecasts, this tool allows you to use your own forecasts for BEV and PHEV unit sales and battery capacities to see how these variables impact demand over the next 10 years. A scenarios tool is also included which allows for several sales forecasts to be compared simultaneously for individual materials.
Example charts for the material demand for battery cells and packs segmented by material, using an arbitrary forecast line for demonstration purposes. Source: Scenario Forecasting Spreadsheet: Materials for Electric Vehicle Battery Cells and Packs
Material intensities throughout the tool are determined using extensive IDTechEx research which includes primary interviews with relevant players in the industry as well as IDTechEx analysis conducted by collating secondary sources. A comprehensive model database of over 240 BEV and PHEV models sold between 2015-2020 is used to determine trends such as battery capacity, cell and pack energy density, thermal management strategy, cell geometry market shares and cell chemistry market share.
Example output chart from IDTechEx scenario tool using arbitrary forecasts for demonstration. Different EV unit sales forecasts can be compared for the effect on various material demands. Source: Scenario Forecasting Spreadsheet: Materials for Electric Vehicle Battery Cells and Packs
Several components are considered in this tool. For the battery cells, the materials used in cathodes, anodes, electrolyte, separators, binders and casings are forecast. For the battery pack, materials required for interconnects, enclosures, thermal management, thermal interface materials, inter-cell pads and insulation and fire-retardant materials are forecast.
The materials that are covered and forecast in this tool are: aluminium (cell- and pack- level), carbon black, cell casings, carbon fibre reinforced polymer, cobalt, copper (cell- and pack-level), fire-retardants, glass fibre reinforced polymer, graphite (anodes), inter-cell materials (encapsulants, cushioning, module housings, etc.), iron, lithium, manganese, nickel, polyvinylidene difluoride binder, silicon anodes, steel, thermal management and thermal interface materials. For more information around our assumptions, the technologies, trends, market analysis and forecasting please see the report: "Materials for Electric Vehicle Battery Cells and Packs 2021-2031".
모든 보고서 구입에는 전문가 분석가와의 최대 30분의 전화통화 시간이 포함되어, 보고서의 주요 결과를 귀하가 제시하는 비즈니스 문제에 연결하도록 돕습니다. 이 전화통화는 보고서를 구매한 후 3개월 이내에 사용해야합니다.