Ten Forecasts for the Automotive Sector: IDTechEx

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Ten Forecasts for the Automotive Sector

Connected. Autonomous. Electric

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Developments in the automotive sector in the latter part of the 2010s have been nothing short of staggering, and so fast paced that even those that have been following the sector for many years admit not having witnessed such radical shifts in decades: A $1.7 trillion market with many facets and complex value chains, mobility is undergoing three paradigm-shifting transformations, all in the same decade: connectivity, autonomy, and electrification.
This offering from IDTechEx, the second installment in the Instant Insight series discusses market conditions, but also the impact on current supply chains and the new opportunities for participating in the newly forming ones. A careful evaluation of today's market trends and their interplay, the report focuses on ten of the most critical events on autonomy, connectivity, electrification as well as in the space for materials for vehicles. These are:
1 - Peak lead acid battery, peak internal combustion engine... peak car?
By Mr Raghu Das, Dr Lorenzo Grande, Franco Gonzalez and Dr Peter Harrop
IDTechEx analysts expect to see several peak events before car sales start to drop: peak lead acid battery peak internal combustion engine, crucially -and after many decades of growth and its transformation from a simple means of transport to a status symbol- peak car, and finally, peak electric car.
2 - The rise of xEVs: Regional Analysis China, Europe, America and Japan
By Mr Franco Gonzalez and Dr Lorenzo Grande
China it is not only the main ICE automotive market but the highest growth market for electric cars. With 2017 likely to be a milestone year for plug in electric vehicles, discussions of a potential ban similar to those enacted in Europe could impact the speed of electrification even further.
3 - The impact of xEV demand in commodity metals: case study of copper
By Mr Franco Gonzalez
A pure electric vehicle electric motor can contain over a mile of copper wire in its stator windings, while 20% of a battery module is copper. Based on such calculations, what's the overall impact of vehicle electrification on commodity metals like copper?
4 - Lightweighting in the automotive sector
By Dr Richard Collins
Reducing vehicle weight is the one thing that ICE vehicles and EVs are both on the same page about. Dr Richard Collins discusses opportunities in lightweighting in the automotive sector.
5 - V2x communication
By Dr David Pugh
From 2018, all new vehicles sold in the European Union (EU) will be required to have a dedicated sim card based internet connection as part of its eCall programme. This is one more condition favoring what is termed "V2X (vehicle to anything) communication", allowing vehicles to interact with people, infrastructure, networks and other vehicles.
6 - OLED vs. LED lighting in automotive applications
By Dr Khasha Ghaffarzadeh
Automotive seems to be the next promising sector for OLED lighting, given announcements by companies like BWM pledging support but, incumbents like inorganic-LED based technology will be the main competitor.
7 - System on chip and software solutions for vehicle autonomy - LIDAR: Cementing inclusion in autonomous driving deployments
By Aman Atak and Dr Harry Zervos
The semiconductor, software and sensor industries are all massively impacted by the advent of vehicle autonomy. Aman Atak and Harry Zervos discuss the related implications, key suppliers and the expected evolution of enabling technology platforms.
8 - IC and EV total cost of ownership and upfront cost parity
By Dr Peter Harrop
There are already claims that the total cost of ownership of small electric cars is already lower than for internal combustion versions, depending on make & model, accounting for depreciation, etc. while lower upfront price is also imminent. Learning lessons from the past, Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman of IDTechEx, discusses what we are to expect not just for small electric cars, but also timelines for parity in other vehicles like electric buses.
9 - Leaders in EV, HV, and related battery technology
By Dr Peter Harrop and Dr Harry Zervos
Fierce competition is expected over the next few years in deciding who takes the lead in the development of electric and hybrid vehicles, as well as related technology and infrastructure. Dr Harrop and Dr Zervos discuss Japan's positioning, a country that has brought forward two leaders in vehicle as well as battery technology developments
10 - Energy Harvesting & grid independence in vehicles
By Dr Peter Harrop, Franco Gonzalez and Dr Harry Zervos
With a variety of energy harvesting technologies in development, some will fare better than others. IDTechEx analysts discuss potential options, such as thermoelectric, photovoltaic, and triboelectric.
Finally, IDTechEx looks even further in the future, when vehicles will be almost completely independent of fuel and charging stations and most of the energy they require will be provided by on-board power generating schemes. Although developments in that respect are not currently a major focus in the automotive sector as it is currently transitioning to connected, automated and electric models of transport, deployments that serve as a preamble of what is to come, are being realized today in allied fields.
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